Pride Angel

America's fertility rate, once the envy of the developed world, has fallen to 1.9, below the "replacement rate" of 2.1 at which a population is said to be stable. That drop, now below France's birth rate, seems to have occurred in conjunction with the recession.

"Conservative Americans like to contrast the vigor and virility of their own country with the decadence and decline of Europe," noted the Economist this week. "Demography is exhibit A in their argument. Mitt Romney, for example, talked about Europe's 'demographic disaster' as he ended his presidential bid in 2008, calling it 'the inevitable product of weakened faith in the Creator, failed families, disrespect for the sanctity of human life and eroded morality.'"

The total fertility rate is a key measure of that so-called virility. But in 2011, America's rate fell below not only replacement level, but also some large European countries, including France and England. The Economist says France's rate is stable, while England's is growing a little.

The decreased rate occurring in lockstep with the faltering economic likely centers on the fact that, absent ample work and bright fiscal prospects, many migrants are choosing to go back to their native countries. Immigrants typically have somewhat larger families. And young couples are putting off starting families, citing economic factors, according to an article in USA Today.

A forecast presented by Demographic Intelligence in July predicted that the birth rate in America will fall to 1.87 this year and 1.86 next year. That's the lowest it has been since 1987, said the Virginia-based company, which provides quarterly birth forecasts to companies that produce products for families, among others.

In a written statement reported earlier in the Deseret News, the demographer group noted that the decline is striking and unexpected, given that the children of baby boomers, a large group referred to as the Echo Boom generation, is of child-bearing age, "which should have led to an increase in the overall number of children born each year. But this baby boomlet has so far failed to materialize because today's young adults are concerned about their current employment status and future economic prospects."

Article: 17th August www.deseretnews.com

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Does the poor economy has couples thinking twice before having children? Parenthood is expensive and young couples aren't sure they can handle the financial burden in today's environment. It’s not a surprise, then, that the U.S. birthrate has dropped to its lowest point since 1987. But, while the statistics may make an economic case compelling, some experts warn that the cause of the drop is more complicated than just dollars-and-cents.

Birth statistics show that a significant drop took place in step with the recent economic decline. Before the downturn, the average number of births per woman in the U.S. peaked at 2.12, according to USA Today. This year the birthrate is heading for 1.87. based on research by Demographic Intelligence, a company that creates birth forecasts quarterly. A rate of 2.0 is considered "replacement level fertility." The United States saw 4.3 million births in 2007 and this number has dropped each year since then and is now about 3.96 million. That’s a decline of "a little less than 10 percent between 2007 and 2011," Steven Martin, a senior research associate at New York University, told the Daily News.

But it’s not just about the money. Although the recession surely played a role in the birthrate decline, Mark Mather, demographer with the Population Reference Bureau, told the Daily News that there are other broader societal factors to consider. "We know that fertility rates declined in other periods of turmoil," Mather said, pointing to the Great Depression and high-inflation rates of the 1970s as economically-distressed historical precedents. But he also noted that the years leading up to the Great Depression saw an increase in contraception use, as did the 1970s.

Martin mentioned a recent National Center for Health Statistics study that showed that approximately 37 percent of U.S. births are unintended or mistimed. "This could have the effect," he said, "of counteracting or buffering the fertility rate declines." These issues complicate a single-cause explanation of a birthrate drop, say these experts. Family planning, immigration - and accidental pregnancies - all combine to vary in different, multiple directions that impact the rates - although the economy is certainly playing its part.

Article: 26th July www.nydailynews.com

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